Even the Government Thinks the Mandate will Very Possibly go the way of the Dodo Bird

I'm just glad there is at least one non-right wing place on the internet where there is overwhelming opposition to the mandate, which without public control of health care is quite literally fascism. The opposition at other non-right places is more nuanced and less overwhelming. But both the right and the hard right are furious, and overall opinion against the mandate is surprisingly high, in excess of 60%.

All of those in favor of the law are (I assume unwittingly) showing their ignorance of both macroeconomics and microeconomics. A book could be written to explain why and how this law violates laws of economics and why and how it will make things worse.

True, some people (besides the insurance company and health industry stakeholders) will benefit to a limited extent, but many more will be harmed by the new laws, which among their dozens of faults do NOT actually create a national health insurance or a national health care system or program.

With the little time I have here I want to mention a curious and very disturbing fact that I discovered which has flown under the radar: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has officially predicted that only about 45-50% of those without insurance now and who will still not be eligible for Medicaid will comply with the mandate and buy the insurance. The rest will still be without insurance.

Thinking that CBO might be unrealistically high on their compliance estimate, I was actually surprised when I crunched numbers to deduce what the CBO compliance estimate actually is based on their publicly revealed still uninsured even after "reform" number, which is about 22 million one year after "reform" takes affect (2015). (I do not have the time these days to actually slog through CBO reports and I half thought they would not openly have what I was after in their reports anyway, so I simply did a quick economics projection and deduced what they are saying about compliance.)

So another reason this is an unprecedentedly bad law is that the government knows in advance that there will be mass non-compliance. I was thinking the government would be predicting a higher compliance percentage than me, but this is apparently not the case. It seems that roughly half of people who are supposed to comply with the mandate are not going to, according to the government itself. I mean come on, you have to do better than that, Democrats, if you want to with a straight face say you even tried to provide health care to the masses.

With sky high non-compliance numbers like those, the whole thing looks like it will devolve into an episode similar to what happened with prohibition. Whether the Republicans will actually repeal the mandate within the next 5-10 years, however, can not at the moment be predicted with any confidence one way or the other. But it does seem certain that the mandate with no "public option" at all and with totally lacking and ineffective cost controls and regulation will go the way of the dodo bird in 15-20 years and within 25 years at the very most. Within that time, the mandate will be dead either officially or, at the very least, unofficially, from any combination of numerous and obvious threats to it, just as prohibition was dead before the amendment was officially repealed.

The above was in response to this article.